I love speculation about the future, mostly because it usually goes so wrong. For instance, in 1985, Ebony Magazine published an article called “Portraits of the Stars: What They May Look Like in the Year 2000“. In it, they commissioned an artist named Nathan Wright to depict what he thinks “today’s” (1985′s) artists would look like in the year 2000. The best part… Michael Jackson. Read on for the pictures:

Check out the entire page from the Ebony article:

Michael Jackson in the year 2000, via the lens of 1985

Nathan Wright said of MJ: “At 40, he will have aged gracefully and will have a handsome, more mature look.” So basically, he’ll look like Lando Calrissian…

In The Year 2000…

The irony is, none of the words Nathan Wright used to describe Michael Jackson are appropriate for his actual year 2000 self.
See:

“…graceful… handsome… mature…?”

Let this be a lesson for you amateur futurists out there. Clouded, the future is; Impossible to see.

TAG Heuer recently ran an ad campaign for their Monaco brand watch. It was a contest to guess the winner of the above “Duel” between two important figures in the history of the Monaco series, Steve McQueen and Lewis Hamilton. The contest officially closed on June 10th, 2009. Apparently, it’s been one of TAG Heuer’s most popular online contests ever.

According to TAG Heuer, Lewis Hamilton won the Duel… but I don’t think anyone wins with this ad. They sliced up the original footage from the Steve McQueen 1971 film Le Mans to shoehorn his image into the ad, and then used a poor quality voice actor that sounds nothing like him to dub over his lines. Ironically though, McQueen’s shoehorn/voiced over performance is better than Lewis Hamilton’s actual performance. And McQueen’s been dead for almost 30 years. Overall, the ad is fairly lame on that level. Still, it has racing footage, so I can’t call it all bad. Check out the full version:

TAG Heuer’s reasoning for using Steve McQueen in this ad is because the company is celebrating its 40th anniversary in 2009, and McQueen helped bring the Monaco brand into prominence by wearing one on his wrist in the film Le Mans.

Complete Ad

Swine Flu public service announcements from 1976.

In 1976, one single army recruit died from the so-called Swine Flu. People panicked, the government panicked. After the dust cleared, the government had wasted hundreds of millions of dollars, and there were over 500 people crippled for life via Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) caused by the vaccine. Also, the vaccine killed more people than the flu did.

Moral:
Government is more dangerous than Swine flu. Don’t panic.

AT&T had a series of commercials back in 1993 that had examples of some of the cool new technologies that the company had hoped to develop in the future. The ad agency that did the commercials must have had a professional futurist working for them, because they were strikingly accurate.

It’s now 15 years later, lets see how well they did:

Have you ever borrowed a book from thousands of miles away?
The internet fits this description pretty well. In 1993, the web was a baby, and most people didn’t even know the word “Internet”. So the concept of reading a library book from anywhere in the world seemed fairly radical. Now it’s commonplace.

…crossed the country, without stopping for directions?
I think this one is the most impressive. The first GPS-based vehicle navigation system was released in 1995, two years after this commercial. And it wasn’t until 2000 that Selective Availability was ended, which made GPS units a real marketable precision. The video in the commercial looks like it could be any modern car equipped with a modern GPS unit. Spot on accurate.

…or sent someone a fax, from the beach?
This is an example of the basic idea of the technology being available, but not in the same way that it’s shown in the commercial. You may not be able to send someone a fax from the beach, but you can send someone an email, which has the same effect. This one not only assumes tablet PCs or touchscreen PDAs, but also assumes some sort of wireless communication system. Another good one.

Have you ever paid a toll, without slowing down?
Electronic toll payment had been an idea as far back as the 1980s, but it wasn’t until 1997 that the EZ Pass system really took off. Between 1993 and 1996, the entire NY thruway was fitted with EZPass, and that’s when it really started growing. So they had this one beat by 4 years.

…bought concert tickets from a cash machine?
You can buy concert tickets from kiosks at the entrance of most venues. Movie theaters have the same thing, those rows of ticket kiosks where you can slide your credit card and buy a ticket for whatever show you please. Or you can just do it online.

…or tucked your baby in… from a phone booth?
Ouch, they were doing so well until this one. People have been dreaming of future videophones for many many years, but we still don’t really have them. They’re the staple future-gadget for any sci-fi segment, but despite the fact that we have the technology to create them… they’re just not commonplace. The demand isn’t there for them apparently. And then… “phone booths”? I haven’t even seen a payphone for weeks. Do they still exist? This one is a strike for AT&T.

Have you ever opened doors, with the sound of your voice?
Biometrics is another one of the future-gadgets that are common in science fiction, and just like videophones, still not commonplace in real life. Keys work so well, and are so much less expensive, that any sort of biometric door lock (fingerprint, retina, voice) would be pointless and prohibitively expensive. Strike 2 for AT&T.

…carried your medical history, in your wallet?
I don’t really know about this one. With insurance companies creating vast databases, your medical history is no doubt linked to your social security number by now. So in a sense, this one is true.

…or attended a meeting, in your bare feet?
Another videophone one? Not really, this one is more realistic since video conferencing is fairly widespread. Videophones are for one person calling another person; video conferencing is for a group interacting. Video conferencing is a reality now.

Have you ever watched the movie you wanted to, the minute you wanted to?
Digital cable is a fairly recent development, and it allows for two-way communication between the viewer and the cable company, so that the viewer can do things like pick the movies they want to watch at any given time. Also, with the constantly increasing capacity of broadband internet, sites like Hulu.com could make it possible to view anything you want to watch, at anytime, anywhere.

…learn special things, from far away places?
This is basically a function of the internet. It seems to be showing a classroom via the internet, which is a common use of the internet.

Overall, its an amazing series of ads from AT&T. About 80% of the calls they made came true, and they were strikingly accurate with the ones they did get right. Good stuff.

Italian fashion line Sasch SHS Teen Clothes has what may be my favorite new-ish ad in it’s “Goodbye Innocence” campaign. They show Safari Girl and Safari Boy in some far off hunting expedition, coming of age, with the various carcasses of their childhood sensibilities set about as trophies.

Not only is this one of the most aesthetically perfect ads I’ve seen in a long time, it’s powerful as well. Not that many teenagers would really be affected by the message, but it’s there nonetheless. This print campaign was actually listed in the finalists for the outdoor category at the London International Awards 2008, with Safari Girl winning a Gold statue in the print category, rightfully so. It’s just so beautiful and perfectly executed. The style and the colors and the look and feel, everything works. I only wish I were in the market for teen clothes.

Check out the the full sized versions of both Safari Girl and Safari Boy:

And check out the full size versions:

the Sasch SHS website

Callegari Berville Grey, Paris – the agency that developed the campaign

Magic and advertising are both deeply rooted in manipulation, and exploiting knowledge of human psychology. One of the most important aspects of the magician’s trade is manipulating the spectators choice while at the same time tricking that spectator into thinking they willingly made the choice. Derren Brown is a master of that particular trick. Check out some Derren Brown videos at the bottom of this post.

Ironically, that type of manipulation plays a huge part in advertising as well. In fact, magicians, politicians, advertisers and mediums are all essentially doing the same thing, the difference lies in their levels of honesty. The magician is usually the only honest one.

Skeptical Magicians

Skepticism and magic go back a long way. Magicians are generally well versed in the trickery that psychics and mediums try to pass off as real; and there is a long history of magicians and spiritualists butting heads. People like James “The Amazing” Randi, Penn and Teller, Derren Brown, and Harry Houdini are good examples of the skeptic magician. Houdini actually spent the latter half of his life debunking spiritualists, psychics, and mediums. He went to great lengths to show that he could do all the tricks they could do, better then they could, and without any supernatural help.

Magic tricks exploit the same cognitive patterns that psychics exploit with cold reading, and politicians exploit with buzzword-filled speeches, and advertisers exploit with logos and ads. Some psychologists are considering how they can use magic to advance our understanding of the brain, and help us be less easily swayed by trickery.

The Science of Magic

In a recent paper published in Trends in Cognitive Sciences, University of British Columbia psychologist Ronald Rensink and Durham University psychologist Gustav Kuhn argue that magic has cultivated a great deal of insight into the human mind via the collective wisdom of magicians. Rensink and Kuhn say that magicians have built up an understanding of the limits of human perception and cognition over the millenia that magic has been practiced.

They write that a science of magic (a study of magic from a cognitive science viewpoint) could be extremely useful to cognitive science. They even say it could help people defend themselves from the tricks of advertisers and politicians.

“Many of the techniques used in advertising and political propaganda resemble the methods of the magician,” write Kuhn and Rensink. “Because there will always be motives for manipulating our choice, an important challenge for the future will be to understand these techniques sufficiently to ensure our free will.”

Advertising’s Magic Logos

Advertising logos have an amazing power over us. In one group of studies, researchers set up an experiment where subjects saw either the Apple logo or the IBM logo subtly displayed. Then they were asked to name as many uses for a brick as they could think of. People who’d seen the Apple logo were more creative.

In another experiment, people were exposed to the logo of either Disney or the E! Entertainment network. Those who saw the Disney logo answered questions more honestly. In yet another study, logos were shown to have an effect on actual physical endurance. When viewing a Gatorade bottle (versus a water bottle), subjects thought of their task as a positive challenge and held their leg in the air longer.

The point is, we’re generally naive, fragile-minded puppies, and our minds are bent and twisted daily by the whims of advertisers, politicians, and unsavory weirdos who claim to be in contact with our dead relatives. It’s unfortunate that our natural tendency towards trust is so easily abused, but we’re not hopeless. We can still learn to avoid the faith-healers and spirit mediums and snake-oil salesmen and false advertisers and pandering politicians. We just have to take a look at the skeptical magicians and try to understand how they can do all the same tricks without claiming to be in contact with the dead, and without asking for our vote or our money. Basically we just need to think critically.

*New videos:

Derren Brown Interview (3/6) – Richard Dawkins (Embedding disabled by request)

*:This Derren Brown and Richard Dawkins conversation is new. Originally, I had a series of Derren Brown videos including one of him cold reading, one “winning” at the dog track, and a few others; but unfortunately, the embedding has been disabled on those particular videos, which disgusts me. Lovely idea… whomever contacted those youtubers and made them disable embedding has said no to free advertising and the free exchange of ideas. They’re saying they aren’t intelligent enough to think of innovative new ways to use this amazing technology of sharing video… they honestly think it’s in their best interests to block people from actually seeing the videos they produced. Amazing stupidity.

The Alfa Romeo badge has a very heraldic, ancient feel to it. Very classy. But what does it mean, and why the hell does it have a giant snake eating a man?

Well, the owners of Alfa Romeo (originally called A.L.F.A. for Anonima Lombarda Fabbrica Automobili, which is translated as Lombard Automobile Factory, Public Company) wanted a logo that was associated with the city of Milan, so they used symbols that Milan had used since the Crusades. The red cross is typical Christian symbol of medieval heraldry and used extensively throughout the crusaides. Back then, seeing a bunch of guys with red crosses painted on them didn’t mean “medic”, it meant: Run for your life.

The man in the serpents mouth is a bit more controversial. It’s a symbol called a biscione, and the man in the image is alternatively described as a child (the modern interpretation) or a Saracen or Moor (aka: a Muslim). So the whole serpent motif is all about the Christians Crusaders’ defeat of the infidels. Yeah, pretty strange.

Alfa obviously doesn’t like to call attention to this, so they don’t. And anytime someone else does, they just say something like “Eh, it’s an ancient symbol of our town, fuck off”. You know how Italians are.

PopCrunch has this odd advertisement for the Love Rug, which was a perfect example of 1970s freakiness. Made of polyester, of course, the advertisement offers it as an inanimate object to complete the threesome you’ve always dreamed of.

Heres the complete text of the ad:

Once you feel the sensuous delight of the furry love rug, you’ll never go back to an ordinary bed again.
As you stroke, it strokes. The incredibly soft furlike fibers caress your bodies from head to toe. It’s almost like having another love there with the two of you.
The Love Rug is as beautiful to look at as it is to feel. Only another animal of it’s stripe could tell it wasn’t real fur. Only $150 in your favorite fur texture. Choose Mink, Lynx, or Jaguar. But be sure to order now!